I would like to state at the outset that I would strongly prefer the Kashmir issue to be decided by a referendum held there which gives the people of Kashmir the option whether to stay in India or Pakistan or even become an independent state of their own. Given the fact that this is clearly not possible I have the following remarks on how to best solve the Kashmir issue.
The current policy of the Indian government towards Pakistan (and Kashmir) seems to me to be that of putting economic, diplomatic and military pressure on them until they end the support they are giving to militancy. Even if they end the militancy there is not much to talk about if all parties meet and try to hold a dialogue. If India invades POK – as the Indian Army chief mentioned as a possibility some days back – we will have to live with militancy indefinitely (assuming there is no nuclear war). In the meantime, Pakistan is being driven into the hands of China, Saudi Arabia and possibly the United States to meet its immediate financial needs to run the country. A question we need to ask ourselves is whether it is in our interest to have China colonize Pakistan as may happen if Pakistan is unable to repay the loans they are taking from them.
Albert Einstein said that if he had one hour to solve a problem then he would spend 55 minutes framing the question which needs to be asked. Once the right question is clear in his mind it would not take more than 5 minutes to find the answer.
The issue of Kashmir is complicated by the fact that India and Pakistan are both nuclear armed powers. As such a conventional war to capture POK is pretty much ruled out as both countries have the nuclear deterrent. In such a situation we must follow the advice of the military strategist Sun Tzu (author of The Art of War) whose fundamental philosophy was – Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.
I wish to make the following suggestions cum assumptions –
It is in India’s interest that Pakistan stays a democracy as a safeguard against nuclear war. In case Pakistan becomes a dictatorship, their rulers will not be accountable to the people and there might be increased chances of nuclear catastrophe.
Secondly as long as the youth of Kashmir and Pakistan is not given a modern, scientific education India can expect terror attacks and trouble on the border by idealistic young men who want to wage a jihad against India for the sake of the (so called) freedom struggle in Kashmir. The sort of education that is given to youngsters in Madrassas financed by Saudi Arabia is the root cause of the militancy India is facing.
Thirdly (based on what I heard in a Parvez Musharraf interview) I have bifurcated the population of Pakistan into the following groups depending on the sort of education that they have received:
- Educated English speaking moderates who live mainly in cities and who have received a modern scientific education
- Conservatives who have been educated in Madrassas whose origin is from rural areas.
- Fundamentalists – also villagers educated in Madrassas who have a stricter view of the tenets of Islam than the conservatives.
- Militants – those who take to violence. These spring from (b) and (c) above
I think there are many similarities between Pakistan and India and Europe as it existed in the Middle ages. If you read the history of Europe at that time you will find that there were many wars and people enthusiastically supported these wars. This must have been due to lack of education and the extreme poverty of the common people at that time. The same is true of the common people of India and Pakistan right now.
The biggest safeguard against Nuclear war is that both India and Pakistan become democracies with an educated and prosperous population who have a lot to lose in case of a Nuclear or conventional war. This is not likely to happen in our lifetime. I also think that a prosperous and educated population in both countries will be more likely to be open to a reasonable settlement on Kashmir. Right now, both sides are sticking to their guns and they have the support of the majority of their peoples.
We must take care that we do not humiliate or offend the Pakistanis as we did in 1971 at the time of the creation of Bangladesh. The animosity of Pakistan towards India stems from that time. We need to – at all times – enable the Pakistanis to save face and not humiliate them completely as they have the nuclear option.
Lastly attempts must be made to strengthen India’s relations with the allies of Pakistan (like China, U.S.A and Saudi Arabia) and also to drive a wedge between Pakistan and their allies. If possible, attempts must be made to change the sort of education youngsters in Pakistan receive in Madrassas by prevailing on Saudi Arabia.
I am not sure to what extent the Indian government as it in its power to implement all these suggestions. The best option is to take steps to avoid disaster and wait until the population of both countries is educated and prosperous enough to not want war over Kashmir and is open to a reasonable settlement. That is only possible when the majority of the population of both countries has more to lose than gain by war.
In the decades and centuries to come it is even possible that the two countries come together in a way similar to what Europe has done. That looks very utopian at this point in time but history repeats itself and it might possibly happen.
So the question is not how to solve the Kashmir issue but how to avoid disaster until such time as both India, Pakistan (and Kashmir) prosper and the issue solves itself. We need to create the conditions for this to happen. Another strategic objective is to drive a wedge between Pakistan and its allies and to strengthen our relations with them. A third strategic objective will be to integrate Indian Muslims into our society so that they do not feel alienated.
How can this be done? I have no idea. But the Indian government should be able to figure it out is it wants to and if it is possible.
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Awesome post! Keep up the great work! 🙂