This article will attempt to describe Chinese priorities as far as diplomacy and realpolitik is concerned, as best I understand them. Understanding of these priorities will enable India and the world governments to frame an appropriate response.
I must start by saying that I am not an expert and I will be happy to stand corrected if any factual errors are detected in the article. If this article is read by someone who is responsible for framing foreign policy then I would urge that person to check the facts and chain of reasoning presented in this article.
I will start by saying that I think that the Chinese government has a chip on their shoulder. The grievance they have is legitimate and is related to the Opium Wars fought in the 19th century between the Qing dynasty (which ruled China in those days) and the Western governments (specifically the British and the French).
What happened was that the British needed Chinese tea and because of trade restrictions imposed on them by the Chinese government they sold opium to the Chinese traders. If it wasn’t for the sale of opium the western countries would not have been able to pay the Chinese for their tea. The Chinese wanted to be paid only in gold or silver bullion (if I remember correctly).
The youth of China in those days got addicted to opium sold by the traders. The Chinese government (the Qing dynasty) naturally took a dim view of the fact that their youngsters were getting addicted to drugs. They sought to prevent the western traders from doing this business.
This led to what is now called the Opium wars. Following is an extract from the entry in the Encyclopaedia Britannica on the subject:
The first Opium War (1839–42) was fought between China and Britain, and the second Opium War (1856–60), also known as the Arrow War or the Anglo-French War in China, was fought by Britain and France against China. In each case the foreign powers were victorious and gained commercial privileges and legal and territorial concessions in China. The conflicts marked the start of the era of unequal treaties and other inroads on Qing sovereignty.
Sourced from
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Opium-Wars
Now which country would allow it population to turn into opium addicts? And which country would not feel humiliated as a result of unequal treaties and legal and territorial concessions being forced on them?
So, there is no question in my mind that the Chinese have a legitimate grievance. But although time is supposed to heal all wounds the Chinese have continued to keep the memories alive. Partly this is realpolitik. This is the way relations between nations are conducted. But it is also dangerous for parties that are not involved in the dispute (like India) when a state as powerful as China flexes its muscles.
With respect to the present dispute between China and India (and China’s muscle flexing in other parts of the world) we must keep in mind that according to the Chinese people and government the territories that they are claiming were theirs for centuries and they were forced into humiliating territorial concessions by their defeat in the Opium wars (in which they occupied the moral high ground). The Chinese are now staking claim to territories which were forcibly taken away from them. The Chinese have a grievance against nations of the west but not India.
Such is the situation as best I understand it.
This being the case I would like to frame the following questions which I would like people who frame foreign policy to ponder. The questions are:
- To what extent should we ally with western countries keeping in mind that the Chinese have a grievance against them?
- What steps are necessary to safeguard National Security and other strategic objectives keeping in mind the fact that China is now the factory of the world? To what extent should we depend on Chinese goods and services for these essential objectives?
- Should we reduce our trade and economic dependence on China? Actually this question has already been answered by PM Modi who stressed self reliance in one of his speeches.
- To what extent should we allow business as usual to continue knowing that many people depend on India’s trade with China for their livelihood? This fact has to be countered by the fact that China has a large trade surplus with India and we should not allow ourselves to be economically colonised.
- What should be our strategy and response to Chinese efforts to increase their influence over countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka? Given the large trade deficits that these countries have with China it is possible that China will end up colonizing or owning these countries over time.
I have sourced much of this article from a podcast I heard online. If you would like to listen to the podcasts yourself here is the link
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